The crew discusses how Liz Cheney and Madison Cawthorn's primaries serve as a test of what the Republican Party and its voters will and wont accept. Instagram did not return a 200. Dec. 7, 2017 | Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS 03 / Black Representation In North Carolina The debate over how districts should be drawn to ensure that minority voters are represented in Congress. The Supreme Court Not So Much. The crew also discusses how Americans are responding to the administrations handling of the end of the war. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. Labor Day traditionally marks the time when general election campaigning truly ramps up summer vacation is over, TV ads flood the airways and pollsters switch their models from registered voters to likely voters. You can get between 30 cents to $1.10 for every audio minute, which sums up to $18 - $66 per audio hour. The crew tries to unpack whats driving Democrats legislative decisions and who will have to compromise to pass the party's agenda. FiveThirtyEight Filed under Podcast-19 Jun. FiveThirtyEight Politics 199 Episodes Share Follow Episodes About 61 minutes | Feb 27, 2023 How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear To mark a year since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. Happy holidays! Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and experts weigh the risks of a nuclear conflict. Galen speaks with Atlanta Journal Constitution reporters Tia Mitchell and Greg Bluestein about how the Georgia senate runoff is looking in the final stretch. History professor Yohuru Williams speaks with Galen Druke about how the protest movement sparked by George Floyd's murder compares with past social justice movements. Rev also gives transcribers the autonomy to work for as much or little as they want. Each week, host Jody Avirgan brings you stories and interviews about how data is changing our lives. The crew talks about why President Biden's approval is underwater, what the consequences are for Democrats and what they can do about it. And what does Florida's new voting law tell us about the GOP's efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the party's larger motivations? They also discuss the accuracy of opinion polling conducted in authoritarian Russia and war-torn Ukraine. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an undercount of Latinos. They also consider whether the ensuing confirmation process will impact the countrys broader political environment in a Midterm election year. What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? They also discuss the trend of amateur candidates running in and winning House primary elections, and ask whether Biden's dismissal of the polls is a "good or bad use of polling.". Its generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. is it illegal to wear military uniform in australia. Rev. Feb. 28GLASTONBURY When Jonathan K. Luiz starts work as town manager March 31, he will be making $190,000 per year. Tucker Carlson Has Exclusive Access To Jan. 6th Security Tapes. The crew runs down a list of theories in a game of Buy, Sell, or Hold to discuss what evidence, if any, supports some of these arguments. Tune in on your preferred podcast platform! The crew discusses Manchins rationale and where Democrats might go from here. Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. In this late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke put their Model Talk hats on and discuss the initial results from the 2022 midterms. Our podcast helps listeners understand what they can be certain about, and what is still unknown. They also ask whether a new poll showing Biden's approval rating at just 33 percent deserves all the attention it's been getting. Our tool analyzes your audio using Google voice recognition. Finally, they analyze why Bidens approval rating has increased by nearly five points since late July. Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and author of the book Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia. The crew also looks at changes the Democratic Party is hoping to make to the 2024 presidential primary calendar. Joining the podcast are Andra Gillespie, political science professor at Emory University, Besheer Mohamed, senior researcher at Pew Research Center, and Stacey Holman, the director of PBSs recent documentary series The Black Church.". They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEights Redistricting Tracker. The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. With the data from the most recent term in hand, the crew discusses how far to the right the Supreme Court has gone. They also preview next week's mayoral election in Chicago and ask whether a new poll of Arizona's 2024 Senate race is actually telling us anything useful. They also introduce a new FiveThirtyEight collaboration with Ipsos aimed at polling Americans about the issues they care most about in the run up to the midterms. Galen and Nate discuss what to make of it in this installment of Model Talk.". ( Businessweek) My theme song for the "What's the Point" podcast from FiveThirtyEight, a podcast about our data age. They also break down how candidate misconduct is generally factored into the FiveThirtyEight model. The conventional wisdom is that if former President Trump wants the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it's his. File Upload. Accuracy is not guaranteed. Galen speaks with reporter Kaleigh Rogers about how candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election did in the midterms and what the future of election denialism looks like. The crew reacts to the results in Tuesdays primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. @Nate_Cohn: The Democrats are putting up an impressive showing in VA-4, the first special congressional election of the cycle. Tensions between the U.S. and China have grown in recent years and, in this installment, the crew looks at changing public opinion of China and how it could shape American politics. In Matthew Continetti's new book, The Right: The Hundred Year War For American Conservatism, he argues that in order to understand where the right is heading, you have to understand where it's been. They play a game of "Guess What Americans Think," in which the panelists have to guess Americans' opinions on a wide variety of topics, including Elon Musk, inflation and Britney Spears. Galen Druke speaks with the director of the Harvard study, Robert Waldinger, about the lessons his findings have for politics in America. They determine whether we live in a free or repres The Downballot is a weekly podcast dedicated to the many elections that take place below the presidency, from Senate to city council. 30, 2021 How The CDC's Blindspots Complicated The Fight Against COVID-19 By Maggie Koerth and Sinduja Srinivasan Filed under Podcast-19 Jun. COVID-19 has pushed Americans into more uncertain territory than most have ever known. Since Jacksons confirmation is the expected outcome, the hearings similar to past ones were more about politics. fivethirtyeight podcast transcriptsapplications of stepper motor ppt. Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux speaks with Galen Druke about the Justices' arguments for overturning Roe v. Wade, where the legal debate goes next and how this contrasts and complements American opinion on abortion. This is the second episode. The crew talks about where Americans stand on mitigation efforts, how politicians are responding, and what public health experts are saying about the current state of the pandemic. Transcript: Ezra Klein Interviews Ta-Nehisi Coates and Nikole Hannah-Jones July 30, 2021 Every Tuesday and Friday, Ezra Klein invites you into a conversation about something that matters, like. New episodes release Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Sundays. The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. He has also reported audio documentaries at FiveThirtyEight, including the monthslong series "The Gerrymandering Project." His work has been heard on NPR, WNYC, On The Media, CBC, Wisconsin Public Radio and the University of Cambridge's ELECTION podcast. - In her first-ever diary entry, recorded eight days after President John F. Kennedy is assassinated, Lady Bird presents a dramatic, cinematically detailed moment-by-moment account of those terrible hours in Dallas, and the days that follow. FiveThirtyEight - YouTube Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science and life. It was the biggest shift of any demographic group between the two presidential elections and led to some speculation about a possible realignment. As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, The Primaries Project. This week Nikki Haley became the first major candidate to challenge former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. Perry Bacon Jr. speaks with Galen Druke about his recent reporting on the kinds of ideas that have gained currency on the Left and how the Right has responded. They also look at how the Democratic Party's effort to rearrange its presidential primary calendar is going, and ask whether a survey of Republican National Committee members was a good or bad use of polling. Max Fisher, author of the new book, "The Chaos Machine: The Inside Story of How Social Media Rewired Our Minds and Our World," speaks with Galen about the impacts of social media on politics globally and in the U.S. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Were still waiting to find out what the deal is, but this focus on slow moving objects in U.S. airspace was kicked off by a Chinese spy balloon that the U.S. shot down earlier this month. The crew looks at the issues that have shaped the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races and rounds up some of the other local races and ballot measures around the country. Upload your Podcast as an audio or video file to Type Studio in our menu. The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. The crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 percent of Americans believe in the QAnon conspiracy theory is a "good or bad use of polling.". Politics Podcast: Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination? In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast. Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk." People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. Since then, the FiveThirtyEight blog has covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics, and popular culture. They also check in on where the redistricting process stands around the country and ask what the two parties should be thankful for this Thanksgiving. 450 episodes. It was a fiendishly clever and massively hyped invention. Please subscribe to the Dow-ballot on Apple Podcasts and leave . They also consider the causes of hyperinflation, as Democrats and Republicans blame different culprits for the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. Americans Like Bidens Student Debt Forgiveness Plan. A bipartisan coalition of ten senators, with the support of President Biden, announced a $600 billion infrastructure plan last week. Galen Druke discusses that question with pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson and writers Ramesh Ponnuru and Henry Olsen, who have all spent their careers in Republican politics and conservative thought. In the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, it appeared that Republican leaders might be ready to break ties with then-President Trump once and for all. Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. The crew discusses how much the two parties are spending on campaign ads and if it could factor into the forecasts shift. The data behind that evolution is striking. 11:03 AM. The U.S. House Districts To Watch In 2022: 10/17/22 The team debates if Americans. Zach and ESPN's Michael Schwartz break down the red-hot Suns ahead of their showdown with the Warriors, then ESPN's Dave McMenamin checks in on the Lakers -- plus . What does it take to make democracy work? The crew discuss the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the very likely recall election in California. Galen speaks with him. The crew debates whether a recent Gallup poll showing that more Americans identify with the GOP than the Democratic Party is a "good or bad use of polling." We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. NEW TOWN . FiveThirtyEight Politics 295 views 25 Feb 2021 Transcribe your podcast [00:00:06] Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics podcast. The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. Thats Changing. The crew plays an Independence Day-inspired statistics game and discusses how the most recent Jan. 6 hearing could affect how Americans view former President Donald Trump. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. 266, the . Mona Chalabi of FiveThirtyEight.com joins NPR's Rachel Martin for a look at who those people are. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19 The Ticket - A Presidential Podcast comes from the Texas Tribune. Hours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. The U.S. shot down at least three unidentified flying objects over the weekend. Commentators and politicos have given lots of hot takes on why Democrats did so poorly in Tuesday's election and what it portends for the 2022 midterms. They also consider Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's motivations for registering as an independent and look at the latest polling on a potential presidential primary matchup between Florida Gov. The crew discusses how the Supreme Court may change once Breyer a more moderate Justice among the Liberals retires. OPEC+ announced its cutting oil production by 2 million barrels a day, President Biden is talking about the threat of nuclear Armageddon and shoes keep dropping in the Georgia Senate race. The crew previews Californias primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. The podcast turns its focus abroad, to Canada and Germany, to see how other democracies' electoral systems work and what cleavages their politics are facing. Last week, we began to explore the most high-profile of those mayoral contests -- the New York City Democratic primary. They also cover the redistricting process happening around the country after a number of big recent developments. At the beginning of the millennium, about two-thirds of Americans opposed same-sex marriage, and a third supported it. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The crew discusses the role of the debt ceiling in politics, why it exists in the first place, and the chances of it being abolished altogether. March 1, 2023 6:30am by Barry Ritholtz. The crew discusses what comes next in Democrats' attempt to pass election reforms, after their proposals hit roadblocks in the Senate. They also previewed and caught up on some elections, including Alaskas special election to replace longtime Alaska congressman Don Young that took place this past weekend. What do we know, how confidently do we know it and what do we know we dont know? From 2008 to 2019, the percentage of people who said they got their news from local papers fell by more than half. Senior writer and legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the Justices approached the question and what Americans think about abortion policy. They also break down what that means for future cases and what it means for the legitimacy of the court overall. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. Schwartz and McMenamin: 11/29/21. They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-mortem after its recent electoral losses. Thanks! Then, Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio joins the pod to break down a new poll that asked Latino Americans which party they are favoring in the midterm elections. In the 2020 election cycle, Georgia found itself at the center of the American political universe. . In this installment, Jennifer Merolla, a Professor of Political Science at UC Riverside, and Hannah Hartig, a research associate at Pew Research Center reflect on the political climate in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 and whether a similar American consensus is possible today. Thee also tracks the latest voting restrictions being considered by Georgia Republicans, including a proposal to end early voting on Sundays, which is when Black churches traditionally mobilize voters through "souls to the polls" events. And lastly, they check-in on the gubernatorial recall efforts in California that are very likely to result in a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom. American politics has changed a lot in the twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The crew discusses how Russias invasion of Ukraine is affecting U.S. politics and the RAND Corportation's Samuel Charap joins to explain the root of Russia's aggression. We look at two of this weeks biggest stories -- the killing of Daunte Wright in Minnesota and the U.S. Food and Drug Administrations decision to pause the use of the Johnson and Johnson covid-19 vaccine. They also talk about what states are doing with their billions in excess cash and look into opinion polling on the U.S.s involvement in Ukraine. The book is the first big reported account of the 2020 campaign in its entirety and is written by Jonathan Allen, senior political analyst with NBC News, and Amie Parnes, senior correspondent for The Hill. Release date: 24 June 2015 Show more Above, storm clouds over downtown Laramie, Wyo., on Aug. 13, 2022. They also look back at 2021, try to pinpoint the most consequential political events of the year and discuss how their understanding of American politics was challenged. FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast Feb. 21, 2023 Politics Podcast: Some Republicans Are Souring On Aid To Ukraine Feb. 16, 2023 Nikki Haley Has Tough Competition In Trump And DeSantis By Galen. Download this theme at theoneamradio.bandcamp.com/track/whatspoint-theme. The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. LS 81 Global Rank TOP 0.01% ABOUT THIS PODCAST Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. The question is whether Mississippis law banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy is constitutional. The first half of this episode originally aired on November 5, 2018, and was produced by Dan Pashman, Anne Saini, and Aviva DeKornfeld, with editing by Gianna Palmer and mixing by Dan Dzula. This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. heritage commons university of utah. Cardozo Law Professor Kate Shaw discusses that evidence and its legal ramifications. Ron DeSantis are the only candidates who currently have sizable support in national polls. FiveThirtyEight Podcasts - FiveThirtyEight Podcasts Politics Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. Pew Research has released its verified voter survey, looking at how different groups within the electorate voted in 2020. Dive in and Share your insights! . 01:06 PM. Institutions are the rules of the game of our societies that direct our everyday lives in fundamental ways. In 2018, the operations were transferred from ESPN to sister property ABC News (also under parent The Walt Disney Company ). Good Sport TED Audio Collective Sports Requires subscription and macOS 11.4 or higher 28 FEB 2023 FT Podcasts FT Weekend podcast 31 min listen Best of: Chef Mashama Bailey on reclaiming African-American food The award-winning chef explains her creative process 2 hours ago FT News Briefing. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. Sign up to get unlimited songs and podcasts with occasional ads. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. Nate and Galen open the mailbag and answer listeners' questions about politics, polling and anything else on their minds. The crew puts Georgia's new voting laws in context and discusses the challenges facing the Biden administration on immigration policy in the short and long term. [00:00:19] As of this writing, we still dont know which party will control the House or Senate, and we may not know come the morning. Transcripts by Erin Wade. The crew discusses the Virginia and new Jersey gubernatorial races a week before election day, and guesses how Americans feel about the potential provisions in the Democrats spending bill. Together they describe why the war has not turned out as originally expected, what the risks of escalation are today and how the conflict might come to an end. All. They also ask why support for gun control measures hasn't translated into new laws and look at steps the Pew Research Center is taking to ensure they have a representative sample of Republicans in their panel surveys. Digital Expert Zone; Our Services; About Us; Get In Touch; Shop; dyckman shooting 2021. fairfield, ct concerts on the green 2021 0. They also discuss the conditions that would have to be present in order for a third party to actually be viable in the American political system. Tia Mitchell, of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, joins the podcast to discuss what to expect from former President Trump's second impeachment trial. r/fivethirtyeight. Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. About 32 million Americans get summoned for jury duty each year. The crew discusses what high gas prices have meant for politics historically and outline the debates in Washington over how to bring those prices down. The episode tracks the 14 days from the murder of the president to when the Johnsons move into the White House, days filled with tragic ceremony and heartfelt moments of solidarity between Jackie Kennedy and Lady Bird. The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, or if its hurdles are usual for any party in power. They also discuss recent polling showing that President Biden has disproportionately lost support among traditionally Democratic voting groups. The crew debates the value of polling whether Americans want Biden and Trump to run again in 2024. They also address a listener question that suggests Republicans achieve their policy goals more often than Democrats. They also take a look at the endorsements former President Trump has made in 2022 congressional primaries and discuss why worries about inflation can be so politically potent. All rights reserved. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. What happens when a former president is facing all kinds of legal liability on the federal and local level, but is also still the de facto party leader and considering another run for the White House? The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton County investigation. They also consider whether a new poll showing that America's reputation has rebounded abroad is a good or bad use of polling. Raffensperger's new book is called Integrity Counts.". podcast transcripts and podcast transcription services. As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, The Primaries Project. 9 days ago. Today those numbers have flipped. No place like 'Nam. Today, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first lady's surprisingly powerful role in the Johnson presidency and includes history-making revelations about Lyndon B. Johnsons time in office. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of the divergence between the conventional wisdom that Republicans will do very well in the midterms and polling showing Democrats leading in numerous competitive Senate races. Galen and Nate discuss the state of uncalled races, what let to a good night for Democrats and answer listener questions. Staff writer at The Atlantic Elaine Godfrey and political science professor Danny Hayes discuss the role local news plays in society and what happens when it erodes. According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one year after 60 percent voted for Democratic House candidates.