Richard A. Gonzalez has an approval rating of 88% among the company's employees. Abbvie Stock Forecast 2023 In the Biopharmaceutical Industry, Abbvie has been able to create a leadership position in the market in each business segment with different brand names in different business categories like Immunology, Hematologic Oncology, Neuroscience, Aesthetics, and Eye Care. On average, they predict the company's stock price to reach $161.12 in the next year. Invest alongside the model portfolio or simply access the investment bank-grade financial models and research. This suggests a possible upside of 3.2% from the stock's current price. I write about Biotech, Pharma and Healthcare stocks and share investment tips. With AbbVie seemingly very confident of approvals for all 3 of these drugs, and Gonzalez suggesting they could form the basis of a "$6 billion kind of franchise" I have modelled for such an outcome by 2030. MarketRank is calculated as an average of available category scores, with extra weight given to analysis and valuation. It is in business to discover, develop, manufacture and market pharmaceuticals globally but in a way that best serves the needs of patients and the global community. Aurora Cannabis Revenue Forecast for 2023 - 2025 - 2030. ABBV-916 is targeting Alzheimer's and it is an anti-amyloid antibody, with a similar mechanism of action ("MoA") to recently approved Leqembi, developed by Biogen (BIIB) / Eisai, and likely soon-to-be approved Donanemab, developed by Eli Lilly. In my model I have then reduced revenues by 20% between 2024 - 2026, and then by 10% per annum between 2027 - 2030. psoriatic arthritis at a lower dose, again with a comparable safety profile, and has also won approval in a field where Humira has not, namely Atopic Dermatitis. We're currently running a sale at my private investing ideas service, Haggerston BioHealth, where members get access to portfolios, market alerts, real-time chat, and more. As we can see the immunology division consists of only 3 assets yet by my calculation, will likely account for 50% of AbbVie's revenues in 2022 (to calculate 2022 sales revenues by product, since we do not yet have final figures, I have used 9m 2022 figures and assumed Q4 revenues will be the average of the previous 3 quarters). AbbVie has a P/B Ratio of 15.97. AbbVie will have to drop its price point to compete with the generics however, plus there is the 10% of the market it is not covered for, so an overall 20% decline in revenues in 2023 seems accurate. In my modeling table above, I estimate Humira sales will decline by 25% between 2022 and 2023, to ~$16bn, although some of that lost revenue will be gobbled up by Skyrizi/Rinvoq. According to the Abbvie stock technical analysis, as of 30 June, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was pointing to neutral at 62.18. Wallet Investor suggested that the price could hit $300.386 in June 2027. There is an element of risk to that as clinical trial failures are common, even for a giant like AbbVie, and even CEO Gonzalez may be forced to backtrack on some of his blockbuster sales projections. Ltd., AbbVie Pty Ltd, AbbVie Purchasing LLC, AbbVie Real Estate Management GmbH, AbbVie Research B.V., AbbVie Resources Inc., AbbVie Resources International Inc., AbbVie Respiratory LLC, AbbVie S. de R.L., AbbVie S.A., AbbVie S.A., AbbVie S.A.S., AbbVie S.R.L., AbbVie S.r.l., AbbVie S. r.l., AbbVie SA, AbbVie SAS, AbbVie SIA, AbbVie Sarl, AbbVie Sdn. Venclexta - a "first-in-class BCL-2 inhibitor for multiple hematological malignancies", according to Gonzalez, is forecast for strong growth, whilst Gonzalez has name checked 3 new drugs he expects to be approved by 2026. Projections are based on making fundamental and technical studies of the ABBV stock price performance. As such I have downgraded my own growth expectations in the forecasting table above, reducing annual growth from 7.5%, to just 2.5%, after forecasting for $5bn revenues in FY22 - down 7.5% year-on-year. According to 34 stock analysts, the average 12-month stock price forecast for AbbVie stock is $166.14, which predicts an increase of 7.62%. Skyrizi - which inhibits the activities of IL-23 - a naturally occurring cytokine that is involved in inflammatory and immune responses - and Rinvoq - a member of the janus kinase inhibitor drug class - fit this profile. AbbVie Inc. is a US-based biopharma company with global operations. View analysts price targets for ABBV or view top-rated stocks among Wall Street analysts. Naturally, if there is a more effective and safe drug than Humira available for the same indication, then physicians are likely to prescribe it over Humira, or a Humira biosimilar. Kateryna Onyshchuk/iStock via Getty Images. Get daily stock ideas from top-performing Wall Street analysts. During the same quarter in the prior year, the firm posted $3.31 EPS. To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. That led to an overall 6% year-on-year gain of 6%, and a 13% sequential gain. First of all, as shown in the table above I forecast product sales out to 2030. We expect that to happen in 2027 with continued significant growth anticipated in the following years. AbbVie's stock was trading at $161.61 on January 1st, 2023. AbbVie product revenues by quarter and year since FY20. What is a Good Dividend Yield? I have speculatively assigned peak sales of $2bn, although it should be noted that success here is far from guaranteed, although if AbbVie did succeed with ABBV916 sales could be 2 or 3x higher than my forecast. With AbbVie's revenues accelerating past $80bn in 2030 (by my calculation), and cash flow generated in that year being >$25bn, after applying discount factors for each year I reach a price target of $176 - the average of DCF - $162 per share - and EBITDA - $189 per share - calculations. The above table shows quarterly and annual product revenues going back to FY20, whilst the last 4 columns show revenue growth percentage between FY20 and FY21, then revenue growth between Q2'21 and Q2'22, the sequential (quarter on quarter) growth, followed by product sales as a percentage of revenues. My detailed modeling suggests there is 15-20% upside to look forward to in the short term and that ABBV stock remains a solid long-term buy opportunity for investors. Skyrizi and Rinvoq will together achieve a higher peak sales figure than even Humira could manage, even while Humira is still making a substantial top line contribution, still accounting for as much of 7% of AbbVie's total sales in 2030. You should never invest money you cannot afford to lose. That is a significant difference because at a forward P/E of 10x AbbVie stock looks like a solid buy opportunity, but at a P/E of 20x, when we consider the risk/challenge of Humira's LOE, prospective investors may prefer to maintain a watching brief as opposed to opening a position. Other products such as Mavyret and Creon appear to have many more years of blockbuster sales ahead of them, although it is interesting to note that AbbVie no longer reports revenues from its Women's Health division, and scarcely mentions it. The company has a robust pipeline of new products that are in some stage of clinical trials. The difference between trading assets and CFDs. (AbbVie data). Management initially blamed slow take-up post pandemic for the drug's declining sales, but Gonzalez also told JPM Conference attendees that "new competitive entrants has significantly lowered our sales expectations for Imbruvica". The most recent increase was . The surge in revenues can primarily be attributed to its Allergan. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Shares are consolidating with a buy. AbbVie is a leader in ESG and sustainability. AbbVie income statement forecast (My table and assumptions). The firm earned $15.12 billion during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $15.30 billion. The material provided on this website is for information purposes only and should not be understood as an investment advice. The official website for the company is www.abbvie.com. In the next year, analysts predict that Revenue will reach C$253.83M - an increase of 3.50%. ABBV has several positive factors pushing its price performance. Currently, AbbVie sees a significantly higher portion of every dollar end up as cash to do with what they please. Bringing RGX314 would be a coup for AbbVie although I am forecasting for only $2bn in peak revenues in 2030 as a hedge against the risk that this candidate does not make it to market on safety grounds. I have been maintaining a revenue forecasting table for AbbVie's products which I have amended based on Q2'22 and H1'22 results, and the slightly downgraded guidance issued for 2022 - management now expects adjusted earnings per share ("EPS") of $13.78 - $13.98, representing growth of 17% at the midpoint. PMeds are designed not only to target the specific causes of diseases, often at the genetic level, but the patients that are most likely to benefit from them. AbbVie has a PEG Ratio of 3.51. One of the few pain points AbbVie experienced during a year of portfolio wide growth in 2022 was the decline in the revenue contribution from Imbruvica, approved to treat various types of lymphoma. Although investing in AbbVie isn't riskless, it is advisable based on what we know about the company. In terms of market cap, it ranks third behind Pfizer ( PFE) and Novo Nordisk ( NVO ). Gonzalez has vigorously defended AbbVie against accusations of price manipulation, but the company is renowned for pushing drug prices up annually and should its powerful lobbies become less powerful in the face of external pressure, once again, the sector will start to look unattractive for investors. Enjoy your holiday weekend and catch up on our most read stories this week. The Abbvie stock forecast for 2025 had the price at $259.018. At their peak, according to a slide from AbbVie's presentation at the JPMorgan (JPM), these 2 drugs are expected to generate more revenues than Humira at its peak. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Since then, however, the stock price has fallen 18% to its current price of $142.6. There has been a raft of price-moving news for Abbvie, which may positively affect the stock price. Nevertheless, after applying the discount factor, I calculate a share price target of $151 based on DCF analysis and a slightly higher figure of $168 based on EBITDA analysis. I write about Biotech, Pharma and Healthcare stocks and share investment tips. In my last note on AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) for Seeking Alpha - in early July - I reviewed the Big Pharma's Q1'22 earnings and looked ahead to the release of Q2'22 figures. Snowflake Reports Weak Guidance: Is the Growth Snowflake Melting? It is important to do your own research, and remember that your decision to trade depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in the market, the spread of your investment portfolio and how comfortable you feel about losing money. We continue to anticipate a clearer path to strong sales growth in 2025 with high-single-digit compounded annual growth rate to the end of this decade. The company had recorded a $4.7 billion increase in the contingent consideration liability related to Skyrizi last year. This year is off to a strong start. AbbVie is a leading dividend payer. Price target. Gene therapies have been a long time coming, having first been popularized in the early noughties. The Immunology division looks strong, even factoring in the patent cliff faced by $20 billion-selling Humira. My EPS figure increases slightly between 2022 and 2023, whilst AbbVie has suggested it will be down slightly before beginning to accelerate towards the end of the decade, as revenues correspondingly begin to climb sharply once the worst of the Humira LOE is over. Please. I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of BMY, GILD, ABBV either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. Allergan plc was an Ireland-based pharmaceutical company focused on health-oriented aesthetic products and is the owner of Botox. Management has previously stated that it expects total revenues to decline in 2023 following the Humira LOE, followed by a return to growth in 2024, and a "high single digit CAGR" maintained through the remainder of the decade. Trial results demonstrated an overall response rate of 63% and a median duration of response of 12 months, where 39% of patients had already tried a CAR-T cell therapy. In the past I have written about the high level of competition between major Pharma in the auto-immune space - for example, for Psoriatic Arthritis the list of approved drugs includes Humira, UCB Pharma's Cimzia, Amgen's Enbrel, Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) Stelara, Eli Lilly's (LLY) Talzt, Novartis' (NVS) Cosentyx and Bristol-Myers Squibb's (BMY) Orencia. ABBV-916 is therefore a real opportunity for AbbVie to develop a more effective and safer drug in the same class and claim a sizeable share of a 6m patient market. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing. According to 23 major analysts, AbbVie's Fair Value will fall by 5.43% in the next year, reaching $122.98. The pharma industry witnessed solid growth amid the pandemic. I will conclude this analysis by stating that, based on all available information, market headwinds and tailwinds, competitors, and opportunities via its products and pipeline, I still consider AbbVie to be a strong investment opportunity. As we can see, sales of Humira are still climbing, with losses in Europe - where revenues fell by 14% to $699m - offset by growth in the US, to $4.7bn, up 10% year-on-year. Should I buy or sell AbbVie stock right now? Let's begin our analysis with the immunology division. z o.o., AbbVie Spain S.L., AbbVie Stemcentrx LLC, AbbVie Trading S.R.L., AbbVie Trustee Company Limited, AbbVie Tbbi lalar Sanayi ve Ticaret Limited irketi, AbbVie UAB, AbbVie UK Biopharmaceuticals Ltd, AbbVie UK Holdco Limited, AbbVie UK Ltd, AbbVie US Holdings LLC, AbbVie US LLC, AbbVie Venezuela B.V., AbbVie Venezuela Holdings B.V., AbbVie Ventures LLC, AbbVie d.o.o., AbbVie s.r.o., Aeropharm Technology LLC, Allergan, BioDisplay Technologies Inc., Fournier Laboratories Ireland Ltd., Fremont Holding L.L.C., Fundacin AbbVie, IEP Pharmaceutical Devices LLC, ImmuVen, KOS Pharmaceuticals Inc., Knoll LLC, Knoll Pharmaceutical Company, Life Properties Inc., Mavupharma, Organics L.L.C., Pharmacyclics (Europe) Limited, Pharmacyclics (Shanghai) Management Consulting Services Limited, Pharmacyclics Cayman Ltd., Pharmacyclics Inc, Pharmacyclics LLC, Pharmacyclics Switzerland GmbH, Rowell Laboratories Inc., S.C. AbbVie S.R.L., Sapphire Merger Sub Inc., Stem CentRx, Stemcentrx Cayman Ltd., Suffolk Merger Sub Inc., and Unimed Pharmaceuticals LLC. 16 Wall Street research analysts have issued "buy," "hold," and "sell" ratings for AbbVie in the last year. The average ABBVIE INC stock forecast 2023 represents a 1.86% increase from the last price of $153.729995727539. To summarize, although AbbVie does not have the same clout in oncology as it does in immunology - as evidenced perhaps by the declining sales of Imbruvica - it is clearly an area of focus for management. Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of BMY, GILD, ABBV either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. Compare your portfolio performance to leading indices and get personalized stock ideas based on your portfolio. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. AbbVie discounted cash flow analysis. It revealed that patients with moderate to severe Crohns disease receiving Abbvies Rinvoq achieved steroid-free clinical remission in significantly higher numbers than patients receiving a placebo. Below, I will outline how I see AbbVie putting the Humira LOE firmly behind it, and driving the high single digit percentage annual growth management has promised. As such, I have decreased my own expectations for 2022 based on simply doubling H1'22 revenues to get a FY22 figure, and downgrading growth expectations to 3% per annum until 2026. To see all exchange delays and terms of use please see Barchart's disclaimer. This could present more profit potential for drugmakers as well as investors. All rights reserved. This represents a $5.92 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 3.79%. Our daily ratings and market update email newsletter. This figure could eventually end up substantially larger - according to Gonzalez: We've begun to see some very exciting data from several solid tumor programs, including our anti-GARP antibody ABBV-151, and our PTK7 ADC, ABBV-647. To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. It had an upside potential of 4.76%, based on the closing price of $152.49 on 29 June. The development of these 2 drugs has been very quick by drug development standards, and to date both have performed exceptionally well. Get 30 Days of MarketBeat All Access Free, Sign in to your free account to enjoy these benefits. An investment in AbbVie is not without risk, but my contention is that this Pharma is in good hands - CEO Gonzalez has made few mistakes during his near-decade in charge - and will emerge from the Humira LOE a stronger and more diverse company. Based on earnings estimates, ABBV will have a dividend payout ratio of 54.11% next year. Drug development has not traditionally been one of AbbVie's strengths - it has not had to be - but we ought to see the positive results of heavy investment into the oncology pipeline over the next 5-7 years, and by 2030, I believe this division could account for >17% of AbbVie's total revenues. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Always do your own research on a stocks price performance and predictions before making an investment. Their combined revenues are expected to reach $7.5bn in 2022, and Gonzalez told the audience at JPM that: Skyrizi and Rinvoq are now on pace to deliver more than $17.5 billion in combined sales, risk adjusted sales in 2025, well above our previous expectations. Management are very optimistic on Vraylar, with Gonzalez describing it as "now the only antipsychotic that is a dopamine and serotonin partial agonist approved for the treatment of the most common forms of depression, Bipolar 1 and MDD" and targeting >$5bn peak sales. In 2022, Humira revenues will likely reach $21bn, which will see the drug overtake cholesterol-lowering Lipitor as the best-selling drug of all-time. Receive regular, detailed analysis focused on biotech and healthcare stocks. AbbVie Oncology Division Forward Revenue Projections (my table and assumtpions). And we remain confident in our ability to achieve total sales of more than $9 billion by 2029. On average, analysts rate AbbVie stock as a buy. Get short term trading ideas from the MarketBeat Idea Engine. The first is Epcoritamab, a CD3xCD20 bispecific for B-cell malignancies, including DLBCL and follicular lymphoma, which AbbVie expects will be approved this year. Our momentum combined with ramping contributions from new products and new indications will drive accelerating revenue and EPS growth through the rest of the year., ABBV has done very well to add to its impressive gains from the past couple of years. Management believes these 2 drugs could one day generate $15bn in peak sales, going a long way to solving the Humira loss of exclusivity ("LOE") problem. Noting the stellar earnings reported by the firm in the first quarter, Richard A. Gonzalez, chairman and CEO of AbbVie, said: An overview of the companys net revenue in Q1 shows a major portion of revenue came from its immunology portfolio, which brought in $6.14bn. A Warner Bros. The company originated as the bio-pharma segment of Abbott Laboratories and was spun off in late 2012. In other words, management believes the LOE of Humira - despite it being the world's best-selling drug - will not hinder growth at the company. And it couldnt be more wrong! I have plugged my revenue expectations into this table knowing that they closely match AbbVie management's own expectations based on what they have said in public. Investors needn't panic however - Humira's replacements are expected by AbbVie's CEO to generate even higher revenues per annum. As of February 15th, there was short interest totaling 11,710,000 shares, an increase of 13.7% from the January 31st total of 10,300,000 shares.