The risk to Chinese power projection lies predominantly with US interests. This alignment will further U.S. goals: to continue to mount a forward defense, to keep the seas and skies free, and to promote prosperity and the spread of democracy. Sign up to receive ShareAmerica updates. Since the mid-1990s, China has pursued a strategy . The United States will continue to stand with our allies and partners to uphold the order that we helped build, Pencesaid. There are certainly other situations involving other challenges, but this is the most plausible and dangerous. This geo strategic significance is the main reason behind the fact that China and other territorial stakeholders are contesting to gain control of these maritime lane. American littoral combat ships are rotating through Singapore, at the South China Seas western extremis, and the city-state has also quietly built the only Asian port outside of Yokohama at which an American aircraft carrier can dock. China has become increasingly assertive in the region, and regional powers from Japan to Singapore have become alarmed at China's behavior. Ironically, the United States is drawing closer to communist Vietnam, in which human rights are serially abused, while growing apart from a major Vietnam War ally, largely due to concerns over democratic backsliding. In short, adopting a more robust deterrence approach need not prevent cooperation that is in the interests of both countries. The security assurances provided by the U.S. military presence coupled with the advent of regional institutions, notably ASEAN and the Asian Development Bank, nurtured that growth. That redundancy will grant the United States flexibility in a couple of ways. Three years ago an arbitration tribunal issued a decision finding that Chinas maritime claims in the South China Sea are inconsistent with the Law of the Sea Convention. Media Relations Manager, External Relations. In 1995, the Philippines discovered that China had occupied and militarized an atoll (Mischief Reef) well within the Philippines EEZ and within maritime territory claimed by Manila. China has tried to effectively annex the whole South China Sea region as its territorial waters, according to Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). Such pressure should focus on concrete, near-term objectives, such as putting a stop to reeducation of regime critics. But if China continues to play its cards wrong and if the United States proves itself a dependable partner, American warships could one day regularly operate out of Cam Ranh Bay, the strategically located port-of-call, for the first time since the Vietnam War. As maritime security such as safety and freedom of . The longstanding U.S. position that it takes no position on sovereignty disputes over land features in the South China Sea, while insisting that these disputes be resolved in a peaceful fashion and in accordance with international law, is sound and should be maintained. More than 50% of world trade passes through the Strait of Malacca, the Sunda Strait and Lombok Strait over the islands and waters of the South China Sea. In such a complex environment, it is important to have well-established, recognizable rules of international law. President Musharraf requested China to invest in this important strategic chokepoint in the Indian Ocean., to which China agreed. US and China is engaging in this sea to control all significance. If this sounds overstated or overwrought it is not. In 2012, Vietnam and the Philippines sought to consolidate their partnership and alliance with the US in order to enhance their strategic position over SCS disputes. More than half of the worlds fishing vessels are in the South China Sea, and millions of people depend on these waters for their food and livelihoods. Burma, however, is a potential bright spot for the U.S. position in continental Southeast Asia. multifaceted fiscal and strategic benefits, acting as a magnet for the regional as well as . 2023 Center for Strategic & International Studies. The third will assess the policies/strategies currently employed by the United States in this arena as well as other plausible options. U.S. leaders should not be afraid of tension in the U.S.-China relationship. What evidence is there of increased projection of Maritime Power? The increasing activity of Beijing in the South China Sea, Consequences of US-China rivalry in Indo-Pacific and beyond, Balancing the giants: Australia between China and US. China has harassed U.S. Navy ships operating in the South China Sea, warned military flights to stay away from its artificial islands, and recently seized a U.S. drone operating in the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines. Even then, the countrys division between royalists and red-shirts will likely endure. The United States can, if necessary, accept a continental Southeast Asia that leans China without major concern for Americas primary interests. In addition to far flung island territories (formerly occupied by Japan) in the South Pacific, the United States had a substantial military garrison in Japan and close ties with South Korea and the Philippines a former colony. World. With Burma internationally isolated for much of the past three decades, Beijing invested heavily in that countrys leadership. With the incoming administration likely to grapple early with South China Sea issues, the CSIS Southeast Asia Program, directed by Dr. Amy Searight, worked in collaboration with other Asia colleagues at CSISDr. In order to understand the contention of the South China Sea and its significance, it is firstly imperative to understand the geopolitical importance of Asia, which has given rise to Chinese pre-eminence; enabling its rise to contemporary major political power on the global stage. Hanoi and Canberra have launched a number of security dialogues and are expanding personnel exchanges, ship visits and officer training. In a context of great power competition, the South China Sea (SCS) has emerged as an arena of U.S.-China strategic competition. Beijing may not find it quite as easy to run roughshod over Hanoi in the coming years. Generally, oil and minerals move north, and food and manufactured goods move south. U.S. Navy/Handout[/caption]. Importantly, American access to four airbases (with potentially more to be made available at a later date)especially those on Luzon and Palawanwill make U.S. air power resident in Southeast Asia. First, the United States should feel more confident to pressure the junta on human rights concerns. From a strategic perspective, the geographical significance of the SCS is that whoever has dominance over it, dominates the future of East Asia. Moving forward, freedom of navigation and routine presence operations should be executed on a regular basis to demonstrate U.S. resolve to fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows. The result has been to heighten tensions and allow Chinese forces to more easily project military power across the region. Coral reefs, which are vital to marine habitats, have been declining by 16 percent per decade, according to a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Back in 2006, Japan became only the second country (after Russia) to establish a strategic partnership with Vietnam. Current developments in the South China Sea must be understood against the backdrop of recent history. China has seized the initiative in the South China Sea, however, and the United States needs to revamp its strategy to reverse current trends and escape the trap of reactive and ineffectual policymaking. The South China Sea is considered a "near sea" and its geographic proximity to the mainland is central to the China's strategic imagination and threat perception. The United States sent a carrier battle group there as well. As building of military facilities continued in 2015, the US explicitly announced its opposition to these constructions and tasked surveillance assets to conduct over flights in the SCS and significantly raised tensions. As the pivot of global economy continues to move east it is highly likely that 21st century geopolitics will continue to revolve around Asia and the SCS. The geopolitical message was unmistakable: Western expectations that China was transitioning toward political democracy were entirely illusory. By contrast, China views. Successful capacity building efforts will allow Southeast Asian states to better help themselves, bolstering deterrence against low-level Chinese coercion and allowing the U.S. military to focus more on deterring high-level contingencies. The strategic landscape of the Western Pacific and Southeast Asia in the early 1990s was remarkably benign with optimism in full flower. There were, however, cautionary signs for those prepared to see them. If China succeeds, in displacing U.S. power in the Western Pacific and Chinese territorial expansion into the South China Sea becomes permanent and codified, global geopolitics will have entered a new and very different era. the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States." Chinese control of the SCS-and, more generally, Chinese domination of China's near-seas region, meaning the SCS, the East China Sea (ECS), and the Yellow Sea-could substantially aect U.S. strategic, political, and economic interests in the Indo-Pacic region and . The United States can stand firm on its principles and deter China from undermining the regional order while maintaining a productive relationship. It threatens the sovereignty of many nations and endangers the prosperity of the world. China tries to control the waters by using fishing vessels that are part of the Chinese maritime militia, coast guard ships, and naval vessels to harass other countries boats and deny access to this key area. Strategic. In 2016, they carried fully one-third of global shipping with an estimated value of $3.4 trillion. The Balloon Incident and Evolution of Espionage. In addition, this thesis intends to propose a solution to the dispute by pulling from a variety of sources. The neighboring South East Asian countries of the highly volatile and busiest waterways of the South China Sea (SCS) have overlapping claims of sovereignty. Seventh Fleet transits regularly between the Pacific and Indian Oceans (including the Bay of Bengal). How that competition will evolve remains to be seen, but the very fact of the contest should be understood as a reversal of fortune for China. 2014 The United States and the Philippines sign an enhanced defense pact, strengthening the U.S.-Filipino relationship. Talks are focused on articles that are relevant to disaster relief, but the agreements eventual parameters could expand as the U.S.-Vietnam security relationship matures. The "Implementing the Strategic Action Programme for the South China Sea and Gulf of Thailand" (SCS SAP Project) completed its Inception Phase with the 1st Steering Committee Meeting held online on the 29 and 30 of June, 2021 with official representatives from Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam and the UNEP Task Manager for the project, with the support of . . US still mired in a 'Cold War' mindset, but the tide's turning, The West is misreading Chinas Party Congress at the peril of world stability, Can Foreign Investors still have Good Reasons to be Optimistic about China? European access to Asia will be through Beijing. Chinas rising military power and political influence is generating anxiety and suspicion among some of its neighbours and western powers. Shortly after the ARF concluded, an official spokesman for the Chinese Defense Ministry asserted Chinas indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea. If China can exert complete control over the region, using predominantly the maritime domain, it can build a significant strategic sphere of influence and power. All Rights Reserved. The most important and least tangible stake in the South China Sea concerns the preservation (or not) of a regional rules-based order supported by U.S. power. U.S. responses to Chinas South China Sea activities have been insufficient to alter Chinas behavior and have fed the narrative that China is pushing the United States out of the region. China is working hard to bring under its control the water, islands, rocks and reefs that sit within its imaginary nine-dash line. That line was given little credence or attention in the U.S. or in Asia over the first five decades of the PRCs history. Pressing Challenges to U.S. Army Acquisition: A Conversation with Hon. Most of China's global trade is seaborne. In the near term, this could lead to sales of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance equipment as well as patrol boats to allow Hanoi to better keep an eye on goings-on in the western South China Sea. Australia and Vietnam established a Comprehensive Partnership in 2009 and agreed to expand it in 2015. U.S. policy in the South China Sea has been overly reliant on military options, which may not always be the most effective response. We will defend freedom of the seas and skies.. Cooperation on areas of shared interest is important not only to the United States, but also to China. Therefore, the SCS has geopolitical and geostrategic importance for the energy and economic security of China and East Asian countries; but also for the USA as $1.2 trillion of its trade moves through the waters. Recent satellite analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies shows that Chinese fishing fleets are engaged in paramilitary work on behalf of the state rather than the commercial enterprise of fishing, the organization reported. . Importance of South China Sea The South China Sea is a busy international waterway, one of the main arteries of global trade worth more than $5 trillion and is growing year on year. Preserving the U.S. military edge is key to maintaining the U.S. position in Asia. As one of the busiest trade routes in the world and home to a wealth of marine and mineral resources, the South China Sea holds great economic and geostrategic importance. In the contemporary era, Taiwan remains geographically at the intersection of most of East Asia's danger points. China's plan for populating the South China Sea was launched in 2012 when "Sansha City", the administrative centre for all Chinese-claimed features in the South China Sea on Woody Island in the . The purpose of this thesis is to examine the South China Sea dispute and to analyze why the dispute has yet to escalate, as well as the strategic importance of the South China Sea dispute to international trade. The strategic importance of the SCS is mainly due to its geographical location, as the area is one of the world's busiest and most strategic shipping lanes. Currently, President Xi Jinping makes frequent references to Chinas possession of the South China Sea since ancient times an assertion that lacks any validity historically or legally. LinkedIn and 3rd parties use essential and non-essential cookies to provide, secure, analyze and improve our Services, and to show you relevant ads (including professional and job ads) on and off LinkedIn. In practice, Thailand may be neutral in the regions great power fissures into the next decade. The United States should continue to prioritize military presence in the Asia-Pacific at the same time as it invests in key capabilities, such as long-range precision strike, undersea warfare, cyber/space systems, and other capabilities that will preserve the U.S. ability to deter Chinese aggression. In sum, the United States has built and maintained a dense network of security links and obligations throughout East and Southeast Asia all sustained by regular contact with the Seventh Fleet as it transits the region via the South China Sea. "First, South China Sea is important for the strategic patrol of Chinese SSBN [nuclear ballistic missile submarine], which needs to enter west Pacific Ocean for its nuclear deterrence against the US," he explained. Hence, the importance of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Firstly, the South China Sea is a prominent shipping passage with $5.3 trillion worth of . TheSouth China Seais one of the most important economic and environmental regions in the world. The South China Sea is a strategic body of water bordering Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam and China. The South China Sea is basically China's export waterway to Africa and to Europe (among other markets), but in order for China's enemy (aspiring conqueror), America, to harm and weaken China maximally, and to use the United Nations assisting in that aggression, America and its allies have cast this vital trade-waterway as being instead basically just an area to be exploited for oil and gas . "American aircraft, this is the PLA air force. April 26, 2016 There is widespread interest in the rising tensions over the waters east of China. Southeast Asians do not want to and should not have to choose between the two, but Chinese behavior is moving some states to pick sidesor at least to lean in one direction or another. The South China Sea is the gateway to access to the world ocean, the nexus for navigation as well as a security fence for several littoral states. This access will allow for more frequent, more sustained flights over the South China Sea, including over the disputed Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal. All this will occur in a region that is increasingly the vibrant center of the world economy. This new strategic map of Southeast Asia actually began to take shape during the Bush administration, whichinitially launchedthe effort to move beyond Americas traditional hub-and-spokes alliance model in the Asia-Pacific. From busiest . The message will be clear; the era of American international leadership and predominance is over and a new preeminent power has taken its place. But as it does so, it acts as midwife to a very real strategic realignment in Southeast Asia, one which promises to benefit the United States and its partners. The second will analyze the strategic landscape in and around the South China Sea. All Rights Reserved, Japans Emerging Role as the Worlds Consensus Builder, Balancing Acts in U.S. Southeast Asia Policy, Pakistans Foreign Policy Priorities: A Conversation with Foreign Minister by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, Indias Economic Ambitions in the Pharmaceutical Industry, Paving the Path to Soft Power: Crucial Moments in South Koreas Cultural Policies, Afghanistan: The United States Must Stay Engaged. In addition, tensions have been raised with the Philippines after assertive Chinese naval patrols which they described as aggressive action. The U.S. She also observed that the sea-lanes through the South China Sea constituted a global commons not subject to sovereign claims by any nation. Douglas R. Bush, Deterring a Cross-Strait Conflict: Beijing's Assessment of Evolving U.S. Strategy, Rethinking Humanitarian Aid: A Conversation with Michelle Nunn, President and CEO of CARE USA, The South China Sea Some Fundamental Strategic Principles, Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, Diversity and Leadership in International Affairs Project, Energy Security and Climate Change Program. When it comes to trade, investment and infrastructure development, China should not be the only game in town. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW 2016 The Arbitration Tribunal rules in favor of the Philippines. The United States and the West more broadly can live with such an outcome. The strategic signal of an Indian presence in the South China Sea Harsh V. Pant India has wider stakes in South China Sea as nearly 55% of India's trade with the Indo-Pacific region passes through these waters. In particular, Thailand has a much more benign outlook on Chinas rise and on its activities in the South China Sea, and although suggestions that Bangkok would dump Washington for Beijing are certainly overstated, Thai elites are hesitant to be drawn into what they see as a U.S. effort to contain the kingdoms largest trade partner. Several countries in the area, including China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia, make overlapping sovereignty claims over the islands and maritime rights in the SCS. The South China Sea (SCS) consists of over 200 tiny islands, reefs, shoals, atolls and sandbanks grouped in to 3 archipelagos the Spratlys, the Paracels and the Pratas Macclesfield Bank and Scarborough Shoal. Utapao has been suggested as a permanent Southeast Asian Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) hub. The Tribunal rejects Chinas maritime claims that go beyond the entitlements set out in the Law of the Sea Convention. In December, another joint China-Russia naval exercise was held in the East China Sea (China Military Online, December 21, 2022). Guidelines for a South China Sea Strategy. Figure 3 highlights the influenced areas. Stay Connected! In each of these arenas, a successful Chinese effort to seize control of the South China Sea will have a profound impact and each is worth elaboration. To counter Chinas efforts to control the South China Sea, the United States needs a sustainable strategy to bolster its own capabilities, work more effectively with capable allies and partners, and strengthen the regional order. The Asia Program promotes policy debate and intellectual discussions on U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific as well as political, economic, security, and social issues relating to the worlds most populous and economically dynamic region. The sea-lanes that pass through the South China Sea are the busiest, most important, maritime waterways in the world. The conflict and tension over competing sovereignty claims in the South China Sea has grown considerably in the past 5-10 years. However, there were a number of reasons to conclude that the line was no cartographic anomaly; it was an official indication of Beijings contention that the sovereign territory of China included the South China Sea. Abstract. The refusal, likely prompted by Beijing, might seem to be just another way for China to put pressure on Taiwan, which it has long regarded as a renegade province. 1. The global focus of economic power has traditionally been centred over the west with the UK and the USA as the key contributors; however in recent years, this has shifted east (see Figure 1), with the main reason for this being rapid urbanization in developing countries, in particular China. Tackling these issues will be tricky for the United States, as many of the elites that benefit from corruption will be those with whom Washington must work to deepen ties, but this is a long-term effort worth pursuing. Follow the Asia Program on Twitter @AsiaProgram. In my mind, this leads to 3 key questions to base any form of analysis from: In order to understand the contention of the South China Sea and its significance, it is firstly imperative to understand the geopolitical importance of Asia, which has given rise to Chinese pre-eminence; enabling its rise to contemporary major political power on the global stage. The United States calls this treaty the Law of the Sea Convention.. Thus, it is said that the South China Sea could be the battleground of World War III. Certainly, the ongoing reform process and the opening of relations with the United States amount to a strategic setback for Chinas position in the region. If full democratization is her goal, there is no foreign partner more important than Washington for achieving it. Preserving the U.S. military edge is key to maintaining the U.S. position in Asia. . In addition, it has proved oil and gas reserves, so the sovereignty of the disputed islands involves legal rights to exploit its resources. Improved governance will lead to stronger economies over the long term and dampen the influence of Chinese dirty money. China, too, considers control of these waters to be of high strategic importance. The growing size and capability of the Chinese air force, navy, and coast guard allow Beijing to consistently monitor and exercise de facto control over most of the South China Sea. The message will be clear; the era of American international leadership and predominance is over and a new preeminent power has taken its place. The Chinese recently built an island in the South China Sea, apparently as a potential airbase. Last year, the construction projects covered 72 acres. 2009 China issues two diplomatic notes that appear to claim a majority of the South China Sea. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it. Navy P-8s are now regularly deploying to Singapore and, although without regular access, they have conducted patrols from Malaysia as well. in the northeast, the South China Sea is one of the most important trade routes in the world. To counter China's efforts to control the South China Sea, the United States needs a sustainable strategy to bolster its own capabilities, work more effectively with capable allies and partners, and strengthen the regional order. Now, the two militaries will increasingly exercise and train across a broad spectrum of military operations, from the low end to the high. A U.S. Navy crewman aboard a P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft views a computer screen purportedly showing Chinese construction on the reclaimed land of Fiery Cross Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea in this still image from video provided by the United States Navy May 21, 2015.